A mere eight weeks prior when the Villa attacker was standing on the Sunderland turf, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him for missing a through-ball. Back then, with the team endured a six-game winless run, the question was if Rogers' form were a symptom or the reason of Villa's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, though, the manager's outburst proved to be much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his brace-sealing goal to restore his side's advantage, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and after failing to win any of their first six fixtures, find themselves only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
It remains a rather hard query to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, argues against it. Furthermore, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season has the team posted an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a club who have just won a ten-match winning streak, the Villans look curiously susceptible – yet currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Winning Formula
The prevailing tactic seems to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened against the Red Devils.
His opener stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the goal frame from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of the opener capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Reason suggests otherwise. During the latest victory, the opponents managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. They’ve conceded in all but one of those matches.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival the club must confront as the season progresses. The forward, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling his shots into the net's top corner forever.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs might still find their top level.
- The main striker may begin to scoring again.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he resembled at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to come back from the treatment room, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. Nobody thought Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder now would be leading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
This winning streak must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. As the hero faced the home supporters at the final whistle leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
