Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are fought: positive announcements are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration functions according to a principle well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to abandon the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is convinced that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the flag against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
