Ten years following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the status quo. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
